A rule of the thumb for the election might be that with Bush's approval below 40% Republicans are in trouble and with his approval below 36% they are in big trouble. If Bush's approval rating is at its current reading on Election Day, administration officials can plan on spending a lot more time answering subpoenas from Congress.Can anyone honestly think of something, anything, that would get GW's approval number above 36%, much less 40%? I believe it's safe to say that once lame duck presidents enter a death spiral in the polls, it's exceptionally difficult for them to reverse course -- esp. if facing a summer of indictment and scandal headlines.
ISI goes on to write:
The variable pollsters are watching most closely is Republican voter intensity. One GOP pollster told us last week that up until the time of the ports controversy several months ago, Republican voter intensity was close to Democratic figures, but since then Republican voter enthusiasm has dropped considerably.This trend sounds about right. These days, any right-wing person I know would much rather talk about anything other than politics. To say they lack "intensity" is putting it lightly.
In the past, I could see where one might say, "yeah, but they'll hold their nose and vote Republican anyway." Maybe, but I'm sensing that this time around many of those hardcore Republicans have seen enough of this administration and privately realize for the sake of the country a change is sorely needed. BushCo is not just an embarrassment to 70% of us, but even more so is a proven debacle that has deeply impaired this nation for years to come -- and many who denied this fact in the past have begrudgingly come to realize it as truth.