Monday, August 30, 2004

Zogby and Knight Ridder are out with results to an interesting poll, one that focuses strictly on the so-called "undecided" voters.

Favoring Bush: most get their news from Fox (40.4%), most drive domestic cars (57.9%), and they're more pro-gun (49.8%) than not (32.4%).

Favoring Kerry: not many are NASCAR fans (12.9%), and when asked if they would vote for the Tin Man or the Scarecrow in Wizard of Oz, the Tin Man won in a landslide (48.7% vs. 13.3%). This is significant because it was framed that the Tin Man represented "all brains and no heart" and the Scarecrow vice-versa. Of the two, I would say Kerry represents the Tin Man (!); Zogby concurs.

Perhaps the biggest thing favoring Kerry (and I've mentioned it here before) is the fact that undecided voters overwhelmingly vote non-incumbent. Zogby points out that in 2000, these undecided voters went with Bush over Gore by a 58.7% to 24.7% margin. Given they are now "undecided," by definition Bush has not maintained their allegiance, putting the odds in Kerry's favor that they will swing his way.

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